My first geometric oil models for forecasting US CPI in 2017.

I have a new geometric oil model (well, 3 variants, models 8, 9 & 10) that have come up with slightly lower inflation figures than I had forecast before. I was looking into the possible uncertainties in the regression line analysis that undelies the models and there is some, due to the scatter in the data. Anyway, the best estimates are now shown on the following chart until July 2017:

This incorporates oil price data to February 2017 and also EIA forecast prices for the months up until July 2017.

I am now looking at models based on retail and wholesale gasoline prices (including current price action and EIA forecasts)

Also, the two videos are here (that were recorded in advance of the CPI report on 15 March):

Inflation Forecasting and Energy Prices Introduction to Concepts
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uZwvaUnwppI

and

CPI inflation forecast models for USA February and March 2017.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F30FOs42J34